Good post Matthew.

It was in fact Joe’s “diatribes” that were the contrarian indicator, as they have been at each of the tradable rally lows.

Below the line is Joe’s prophetic call in mid-September right as Silver had bottomed and started moving higher and right before the mining stocks took off. Those claiming #JoeWasRight got hoodwinked once again, and instead of “Selling everything and going to cash” it was actually time to do the exact opposite of that and deploy one’s cash into oversold crazy low valuations. Once again, most investors fail to buy low, and instead prefer to cry low.

This post from Joe couldn’t have been more wrongo in the Congo… lost in the high weeds as usual.

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@Joe – Sep 11, 2022 11:00 AM

“TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK….”

“The countdown to the next rate hike and subsequent smack down in PMs is underway.
Another week and half for the next bomb to drop, and PMs will be smashed down again.
You still have time, any rally in PM shares should be seen as a merciful window of opportunity to do one thing and one thing only…..”
SELL
SELL
SELL
“This is the LAST opportunity for you to unload your shares before the last quarter of the year starts and these stocks are ground into a fine powder.”
“Get your cash stockpile up, you’ll need it.”
SELL
SELL
SELL

I posted this chart on the weekend show blog, but as for the Silver, it’s been nothing but bullish the last few months, and it has been a thing of beauty. (meanwhile in September alarmist Joe was warning of the imminent PM smash down for Q4). Haha!

> Just look at that move from $17.40 in early September to the weekly close last Friday on Dec 9th at $23.72 (after making an intraday high of $23.90).

Gotta love it! 😉

https://schrts.co/kPuhADSU

In contrast to Joe’s warnings from Sept – through October, I was doing the opposite, and posted here on the KER about the quick reversal in Silver, the bad market breadth in the mining stocks, and the BPGDM as another signal worth noting in late September as a good place to accumulate.

Note the stark difference in messaging, below, all while the contrarian indicator bear brigade here were still employing everyone to sell, sell, sell at precisely the wrong time. That is the difference between actually using technical and fundamental data to get the call right, versus a broke clock megaphone guy with a consistently vague and unhelpful warning based on nothing but an anonymous guy named Joe’s gut feeling.

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@Excelsior – Sep 24, 2022

“It was also encouraging the last 2 weeks to see Silver bounce off $17.40 and then springboard back up into the mid-$19s again, but it lost $19 support already to close this week at $18.91.”

“There is a lot of bearishness out there, and sentiment is getting about as bad as it was in 2015 again, so that is actually a contrarian bullish signal. The BPGDM chart going down to a reading of 7 is also a contrarian bullish signal, as the market breadth in the gold stocks is fugly. There are other readings of gold stocks below their 200 day moving averages, or making new 52 week lows that are now so bearish, that they look contrarily bullish. Still, the markets can stay oversold and irrational longer than many can stay solvent, so these conditions could still deteriorate further. The BPGDM could go to 0 and stay there for a month like it did a few years ago, so it isn’t a great timing tool, but at these low levels, it is definitely showing we are closer to at turn than we are a whole leg lower. So while we could still see things sell off further, scaling into positions into this weakness is a solid approach for those that like to catch tradable rallies.”

Then a few weeks after my post on Sept 24th, here was Joe again 2 weeks later, still flat out wrongo in the Congo… Anyone listening to his broken clock messaging and the #JoeWasRight crew, not surprisingly completely missed another great double-digit (or in some stocks triple-digit) gains in the PM stocks, off their mid to late September lows to early December. Even the general markets rallied the last few months, so “Selling Everything” at that time couldn’t have been worse advice.

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@Joe (08/11/2022)

“PMs are lagging because it is time to SELL, SELL, SELL!!!!
Things are starting to unravel, this recent rally in markets is nothing more than shorts covering and repositioning for the next decline.
It’s nothing more than a eye of the storm, the next wave of selling will wash across the markets and take everything down. PMs will sell off again, and anyone who bought into this recent dead cat bounce will be swept out to sea in riptide of selling.
“This will probably be your last chance to get into the safety of cash.”
SELL NOW!!!!”

— Ole Joe

Maybe Joe will get lucky on this more recent call today, after being quiet as a church mouse since mid-October through present as it was clear the PM sector and general markets were all rallying in the face of his prior sell everything calls since September.

Now the charts are more oversold and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a pullback for a few weeks to digest the moves we seen in the sector for going on 3 months now.

And heck… “Even a broken clock is right twice a day.” 😉